New exclusions data: A turn in the tide?

The new exclusions data for 2024/25 tells an encouraging story. After three successive years of a spiralling crisis in the number of children suspended and excluded following the pandemic, numbers are slowly starting to come down.

In 2024/25, there were 9,906 permanent exclusions, down nearly ten per cent from 10,885 in 2023/24 and beginning to arrest a surge of 68 per cent in two years from 2021/22 to 2023/24.

There were 913,000 suspensions, down from 954,952 in 2023/24. This remains over three times the number of suspensions ten years ago in 2014/15 but marks a possible turn in the tide.

Despite this progress, two things must be acknowledged. First, we are still in a behaviour crisis. Second, further progress in exclusions and suspensions will depend on improving the SEND system.

The enduring behaviour crisis

The suspensions rate per 100 children remains high at 10.9, having averaged 4.3 from 2010/11 to 2018/19. Similarly, nearly 10,000 exclusions is still 71 per cent higher than in 2014/15.

Poor behaviour in the classroom causes children to miss an average of seven minutes out of every 30 minutes of lesson time due to disruption. Less than half of secondary school pupils report having felt safe at school ‘every day’ in the past week as of May 2025. In April 2025, the Teachers’ Union NASUWT published a poll of its members which found that 81 per cent of teachers felt that the number of pupils exhibiting violent and abusive behaviour has increased.

As well as children losing out on learning, poor behaviour is fuelling the teacher retention crisis: over half of teachers have “seriously considered” leaving teaching due to the impact of verbal or physical abuse from pupils experienced in the last 12 months.

A recent TES survey on teacher wellbeing found that the challenges with pupil behaviour have “shifted from managing isolated incidents to navigating a daily environment of persistent disrespect and shifting cultural attitudes.” An urgent review of behaviour standards in schools is needed to ensure that trends in poor behaviour since the pandemic do not become the new normal, and that vulnerable children can belong and feel included in the classroom.

Fixing the broken SEND system

Despite meaningful progress overall, the number and rate of suspensions and exclusions of children with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) have hit a new record.

Permanent exclusions of pupils on EHCPs have risen from 347 in 2014/15 to 1,198 in 2024/25. As the group has grown rapidly, the exclusion rate within the group has also surged three quarters in ten years. Similarly, the number of suspensions of children with EHCPs has surged by 246 per cent from 33,544 in 2014/15 to 116,188 in 2024/25. Here too, the rate has risen by three quarters up to 26 suspensions per 100 children with an EHCP from 15 in 2014/15.

The number of pupils with EHCPs has more than doubled since 2015/16 and hit 640,000 this year. Correspondingly, the annual cost of the SEND system (26/27 prices) has risen from £8 billion (2015/16) to £15.1 billion (2025/26) over a decade.

Eighty-eight per cent of the rise in school-pupil EHCPs has come from three areas of need: Autistic Spectrum Disorder, Speech, Language and Communication Needs, and Social, Emotional and Mental Health. These now account for over 70 per cent of EHCPs.

These new figures demonstrate what the IEC has warned: despite soaring spending, support and outcomes for vulnerable children have not improved. Instead, we are seeing rising waiting lists for assessment, a fall of almost a third in real terms funding per EHCP, and a new market for private assessments which cost an average of around £1,361 for ADHD.

Children from the poorest areas are now up to four times less likely to get an EHCP than those from more affluent areas, despite being more likely to have additional needs.

Making progress

The Government’s recent Schools White Paper and SEND Consultation set out encouraging plans for reform that can go a long way towards tackling the behaviour crisis and resulting high exclusion rates in schools.

These include an improved SEN Code of Practice, a three-tier system for SEND support, a new ‘enrichment entitlement’ for pupils and a parental engagement toolkit. 

Since the last Exclusions Tracker in April, the Government has published new statutory guidance on suspensions and permanent exclusions. The guidance reflects concerns previously highlighted by the CSJ about off-rolling, including evidence that some parents have felt pressured to remove their children from school and electively home educate. 

However, while these measures are welcome, the Government must go further to address the root causes of the behavioural crisis underpinning exclusions, this will mean:

1. Inclusive education: Being inclusive of pupil needs by delivering high standards of behaviour in classrooms, including the DfE delivering a review of behaviour standards.

2. Enrichment and sport: Introducing an enrichment guarantee so every pupil has opportunities to broaden their horizons, introducing a new Right to Sport for all secondary-age pupils.

3. Parent partnership: Overhauling parental engagement at schools, including empowering families through rolling out a practical engagement toolkit.

4. AP quality: Establishing robust national standards for internal alternative provision by ensuring any use of alternative provision is suitable, in the best interests of the child and leads to progress. 

It must also fundamentally reset the SEND system based on four principles:

1. Intervene earlier: by radically expanding Family Hubs, improving school readiness, expanding speech and language support, restoring attendance and behaviour expectations, and increasing access to sport and enrichment.

2. Define need clearly: by reforming the SEND Code of Practice, narrowing statutory thresholds, and ensuring specialist support is reserved for children with severe, enduring and complex needs.

3. Reduce escalation: by strengthening targeted mainstream support, reforming tribunals, restoring local authority commissioning power, controlling independent special school costs, and decoupling diagnosis and educational designation from welfare entitlement.

4. Reinvest in effective support: by tightening eligibility to Child Disability Living Allowance for milder behavioural and neurodevelopmental cases, while protecting children with substantial functional impairment, redirecting savings into a £500 million investment in evidence-based parenting support programmes as well as an above-inflation increase to benefits for children with the most severe and complex support needs.

We are at a crossroads. A tragic crisis is showing some signs of improvement, but the improvement is small, fragile, and partial. With comprehensive, system-wide reform it is possible to ensure no child is left behind and that every young person receives the support and enrichment they deserve. We must be ambitious.

The IEC blog provides a platform for a range of voices and perspectives. The views expressed are those of the individual author and should not be taken as representing the official views of the Community.